Election 2022: Evaluation from Emory consultants

Within the months main as much as the Nov. 8 election, Emory consultants offered commentary on a broad vary of matters — together with polling, voting conduct, well being care coverage, gender and politics, and race and politics, amongst others — for worldwide, nationwide and native media.

Earlier this week, Emory political science professors Alan Abramowitz and Bernard Fraga offered a briefing on campus for the U.S. State Division’s Foreign Press Centers. A global group of about 20 overseas correspondents got here to Emory’s Convocation Corridor for the Nov. 7 occasion, the place Abramowitz and Fraga shared insights about native and state politics, the impression of Georgia’s election nationally, and voter rights/poll safety efforts.

On Thursday, Nov. 10, Candler College of Theology’s James T. and Berta R. Laney Legacy in Ethical Management will welcome a panel of students and consultants to campus to debate the midterm election outcomes. This occasion is free and open to the general public, with advance registration required.

The Future of American Democracy: Post-Election Reflections” will likely be moderated by Invoice Nigut, govt producer and host of Georgia Public Broadcasting’s “Political Rewind.” Panelists embrace Andra Gillespie, affiliate professor of political science at Emory; Eric Tanenblatt, world chair of public coverage and regulation at Dentons; and DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond. 

Insights from Emory political scientists

Pearl Dowe serves as Asa Griggs Candler Professor of Political Science in Oxford School and Emory School.

Her analysis contains African American political conduct, gender and politics, and African American political management. Most not too long ago, she has centered on political ambition and public management in African American girls. 

“A wanted level of dialogue transferring ahead is the problem that Black girls face in working for statewide workplace,” Dowe mentioned the morning after the election. “Black girls’s voting energy and their capacity to mobilize voters have been lauded, however these identical girls as candidates are sometimes not supported or considered as viable candidates.

“On this election cycle Black girls candidates checked the containers within the areas which might be essential for statewide success, they raised record-breaking quantities of marketing campaign funds, had identify recognition and former management expertise. However these components nonetheless didn’t transcend to victory. In reviewing exit ballot knowledge, there nonetheless exists stark racialized voting. Sadly, Black girls candidates will not be considered as an choice by many white voters. For Black girls voters and politicians this truth will seemingly affect when and the way Black girls use their political energy sooner or later.”

Bernard L. Fraga, affiliate professor of political science, researches American electoral politics, racial and ethnic politics, and political conduct. He has carried out a statistical evaluation of voter registration data and election outcomes. Broadly, he research how group identities and electoral contexts impression particular person political conduct.

“The ‘purple wave’ that was predicted by pollsters and pundits was extra of a ripple. Whereas it appears like Republicans will reclaim a majority within the U.S. Home of Representatives, in lots of high-profile contests voters both caught with incumbents or punished Republican candidates who had been carefully aligned with former President Trump,” Fraga famous. 

Right here in Georgia, “Stacey Abrams and different Democrats working for statewide workplace bought a decrease share of the vote than they did in 2018, regardless of what’s going to seemingly be the same degree of voter turnout,” Fraga mentioned on Wednesday morning. “The one exception for Democrats is Sen. Raphael Warnock, who enormously outperformed different Democrats within the state seemingly resulting from ticket-splitting by Republicans who voted for Gov. Kemp however couldn’t assist the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, Herschel Walker. That mentioned, Walker in all probability did effectively sufficient to pressure Warnock right into a runoff election that will likely be held on Dec. 6.”

Editor’s observe: With all precincts now reporting, Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat will likely be determined by a runoff election on Dec. 6 between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and Herschel Walker, a Republican.

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